[Madman's Diary] Will the Fed Minutes tonight be a turning point in monetary policy?

Recently, the market has jumped up and down, the operation is relatively difficult, mainly due to the great divergence between longs and shorts. On the one hand, the money supply continues to tighten, and on the other hand, the data on the chain continues to support the bull market, making the battle between longs and shorts very difficult. It is fierce, and everyone can clearly feel the fluctuations in the near future, but there is no real direction. This wide-ranging trend is expected to continue. The United States will announce the number of unemployment benefits at 20:30 tonight, and the monetary policy minutes will be announced at 2:00 in the morning. At present, the expectation of shrinking the balance sheet is still very obvious. This has been reflected in the pre-market (down) trend of US stocks. Fed Brad said early in the morning that inflation may be higher in 2022 and will be forced to enter the anti-inflation mode. It would be a reasonable time to reduce debt purchases in the first quarter of this year and raise interest rates in the fourth quarter. It can be seen that the tightening expectations are coming forward, and it is expected that with the data tonight, there will be major fluctuations in the data, and the long-short competition will further escalate. See the specific analysis below, and wait and see.

Citibank’s chief foreign exchange strategist said that global central banks appear to be reducing monetary stimulus. Judging from the meeting minutes released yesterday, the Fed is also hinting at expectations for reduction this year. The madman also found a piece of data, in the past 4 years, the relationship between Bitcoin and global currency growth, to share with you:

We can clearly see that the currency growth rate and Bitcoin price are positively correlated, and we are still in the cycle of currency issuance. Whether this tightening callback can continue will determine the future trend of Bitcoin. Madmen believe that the big economic cycle has entered stagflation, so it is difficult to really reduce the release of water. After a short-term pain, continuing to rise is the most consistent result of the cycle and trend.

American legendary fund manager Bill Miller stated that he bought approximately $30 million in Coinbase stock in the second quarter of 2021, and said that he is optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term. The cognition of top traders must be much better than ours. People are still increasing their positions at a high level. What's so terrible about us.

Spinesmith Holdings, a German biotechnology company, began to hold Bitcoin for a long time and included it on its balance sheet. More and more institutions around the world began to hold Bitcoin. All positions below 60,000 will become the bottom range in the future. , Because the total amount of Bitcoin is limited, and the demand is growing rapidly.

The Minister of Finance of El Salvador stated that the use of Bitcoin is completely optional. Merchants can choose to accept or not accept Bitcoin. The U.S. dollar is still the main currency of El Salvador, and the Central Bank of El Salvador has issued a draft of Bitcoin-related banking supervision. I can feel that it is difficult for the people to accept Bitcoin as a legal currency. Therefore, the success of the Bitcoin experiment in El Salvador is more determined by whether Bitcoin can continue to rise.

MicroStrategy CEO stated that Bitcoin will become a $100 trillion asset class. Regardless of whether his judgment is ultimately correct, at least for now, he is one of knowing and doing, buying and holding bitcoins like crazy.

According to the data on the chain, holders above 100 BTC have reduced their holdings, while those below 1 BTC have increased their holdings. This is a mid-term performance of the bull market. At the same time, the inflow of Bitcoin in centralized exchanges has increased in the past two weeks, the price of the currency has fallen, the inflow has increased, and differences have occurred, which is in a good state.

The discount rate of GBTC fell to -16.56%, a record low in the past three months. It can be seen that many institutions have sold GBTC. When ARK reduced its holdings, madmen judged that GBTC would continue to fall, and ARK people did the same. Bands make money, not to give benefits. The recent market downturn is related to these band-making institutions.

As a result, the balance of Ethereum hit a new low, dropping to 13% of the total supply. At the same time, the amount of ETH2.0 locked up was close to 7 million. The relationship between supply and demand continued to improve, laying the foundation for future growth.

VanEck submitted an Ethereum ETF application to the SEC. Everything about Ethereum will not lose to the big pie, and the future can be expected.

Greed 70, has been unable to drop, is not conducive to rising.

Market analysis

Bitcoin：

In the early hours of the morning, Bitcoin pulled back the gains from last night. It is not ideal. Short-term 42,000 is a strong support. I am not sure whether there will be a chance to insert the needle before and after the Fed minutes is issued tonight. A sharp drop below 43000 is still a good short-term opportunity to increase positions. In addition, if the lower shadow line can be closed again this evening, it will be a relatively ideal form. Bitcoin's trend is full of uncertainty in these two days, and a big rise or fall is likely to be triggered. 48000 is still the key position for the long collection. Once it breaks through, the whole situation will change. Similarly, if 42000 is effectively broken down, the market will form a staged top. The madman overall believes that the bulls still have a slight advantage, and the final defeat of the bears is a high probability event.

ETH：

Ethereum has a certain degree of support at 2900, and funds are waiting to see the face of the big pie. There is no independent market, and linkage is the mainstay.

DOT：

Concussion is a relatively strong trend and can continue to be held.

XRP：

Short-term weak linkage.

LINK：

The bulls have collapsed, and it is difficult to reverse upward in the short term.

THERE IS:

We are still speculating about the expectation that the smart contract will be launched in September. When the time comes, we can see whether its ecology can be benchmarked with Ethereum. Buying in this position is speculation. The specific results can be seen after the landing. Holders can also consider taking half of the profit at a high position.

DOGE:

In the near term, linkage is the main focus, and the pressure below 0.4 is still great.

FIL ：

The recent volatility is dominated, the bulls do not have the ability to continue the independent rise in the market, and the selling pressure is quite large.

AXS：

The form has been carried back and forth, and there will be weakness behind the funds, and it is recommended not to participate.

SUSHI:

Step back on the support level, and whether you can get up later depends on tomorrow's performance.

AAVE:

There will be many public chains using it in the future. It is a good asset. The recent decline has been relatively large, so it can be avoided first.

SUN:

Continue the 5-day line tactics.

Some second-tier public chains have followed ADA and SOL out of the trend of supplementary gains, which are expected to be difficult to sustain, and it is recommended not to chase higher. The market is in a difficult period of choice, and wide fluctuations are the main tone. The end of this month will probably determine the trend of the next six months to one year. For a very important period of time, I hope that business as usual will bring us more wealth.

[Diary]Tell you a secret, how crypto will go next?

In the spring of 1975, the U.S. forces withdrew from the Vietnam battlefield. 46 years later, the U.S. forces withdrew from Afghanistan. Regardless of whether the Taliban regime can be stabilized or not, it has little to do with us. Now we should understand one thing. Repeating, is it accidental or inevitable? Will there be a similar future? The madman studied the big cycle in depth last night and discovered an amazing secret.

Anyone who has seen the Kangbo cycle knows that there is a cycle of about 60 years, and this time, the two withdrawals of the United States are just the iterations of a major cycle. Our era has entered a period of economic stagflation. What is stagflation? Just how much money is printed will not have a positive feedback on the economy. At this time, the money will flow into the virtual economy, that is, the stock market, commodities or gold. In the United States in the 1970s, there was a big stagflation. In the following years, the prices of various assets went up wildly, which also became a turning point in a new cycle. At the end of the article, the madman gave you a website. If you are interested, you can check it out for yourself. 1970 Years later, what happened in the United States. The madman here wants to draw a conclusion directly. The current crypto market superimposes the needs of the times, superimposes the economic stagflation cycle, superimposes the digital currency, and in the next few years, no assets will be able to outperform the cryptocurrency. This sentence madman You can pat your chest and put the words here. If the madman is still creating in a few years later, we can witness together. If you believe in the judgment of the madman, take the Bitcoin and Ethereum in your hand and wait for the miracle in a few years. happened.

Iran’s national tax regulatory agency proposes to legislate for legal cryptocurrency exchanges. The crypto industry has entered the process of legalization in Iran. Zf is still fighting for its own taxes, but this kind of country is barefoot and is not afraid of wearing shoes. Have the opportunity to complete the curve and overtake. The Indian side also said that India’s cryptocurrency bill is waiting for the cabinet to pass, and it is about to start supervision. Don’t look at the real economy, but the financial game is still quite good. The stock market is rising every day, indicating the financial situation. It is clear that cryptocurrency will also become an investment product in India, a populous country, and the army is about to rush in.

The Central Bank of Costa Rica is vigilant and tolerant towards cryptocurrencies, while leaving room for technological innovation, while at the same time making investors aware of the risks. This open attitude is worth learning.

Bank of America has given a neutral rating to Coinbase stock and believes that he is still far from becoming the Amazon of the crypto industry and is still in the early stages. A Binance’s annual revenue exceeds Nasdaq. It is also an exchange. The tradition is quickly overturned by the currency circle. These traditional financial analysts are still talking coldly and look down on emerging industries. This is really The collision between tradition and rookie is full of irony.

Similarly, the rating agency Fitch also warned Salvadoran insurance companies that the adoption of Bitcoin will have a negative impact on the credit of insurance companies, and the rating companies are not completely neutral. In the future, once cryptocurrency replaces the traditional financial model, Fitch may also become a victim. Objects of subversion, opaque things will eventually be replaced by blockchain technology.

JPMorgan Chase also said that there are signs of a bubble in Bitcoin investment, and they are more optimistic about the US stock market. These institutions have smelled the breath of risk. The cryptocurrency industry is developing too fast, with high thresholds, and work intensity and time are not comparable to traditional industries. It is normal for us to pay so much and make a little more money.

Cryptocurrency investment products have continued to flow out in the past six weeks, with a total value of 115 million U.S. dollars. This is the longest continuous outflow since 2018. Again, this is too little money and has little impact.

Investment giant Tiger Global bought $665 million in Coinbase stock. This company manages $79 billion in assets and spends nearly 1% on the allocation of crypto exchanges. These trends have become an unstoppable reality. Incremental funds will be in the future. Time will quickly come in.

Greed 72, not ideal in the short term.

Market analysis

Bitcoin:

48,000 did not pass, but the market showed strong resilience, meaning that it could not be adjusted. Remember the wave of 312. Many people thought it would be over after 60,000. As a result, the market abruptly pulled to 65,000, and those who got off the car had no chance. It’s the same this time. As long as the bull market continues, it won’t give those who have run out of the sky a good opportunity to get in the car. Since the market is not deeply adjusted at present, we are still thinking long and continue to buy and hold. The distance of 1 million bitcoins is only 30 times, and it takes minutes to go up.

ETH:

It is also unable to adjust, and there is a chance to continue.

DOT:

Recently it has been hyped up very fiercely, but compared with other public chains, it is not strong, and the 5-day line will be held if it is not broken.

XRP:

The weak are always weak.

LINK:

It's not broken, you can hold it.

ADA:

There is still some selling pressure in the front high position, and it is normal to adjust it. It is too difficult to directly go up.

ZEC:

Recently, the K-line has been moving quite steadily, and there is a chance to speed up.

AXS:

The income remains at 11 million US dollars a day, and the demand is still sufficient at high levels. It refuses to pull back and is expected to continue to new highs.

MATIC:

Acquiring Hermez and completing the L2 full expansion plan, Polygon basically dominates this track, and the leader of the expansion plan of Ethereum belongs to him and deserves it. Before the real arrival of Ethereum 2.0, his living space is still good, and how to transform in the future, let's take a look.

SUSHI:

Independent rise, just hold on the 5-day line.

AAVE:

The amount of locked positions exceeded 24 billion U.S. dollars, mainly locked in Ethereum, and 4.37 billion locked in Polygon. This coin is a very good APP (application) that can survive on any system (public chain). After all, people do global P2P, purely copy traditional finance, and use blockchain to reduce dimensionality to combat tradition.

SOL:

Recently, Afro series are very fierce, such as SRM, SUSHI, RAY, SOL, etc., this kind of rise can only be held along the trend, just watch it if you have no position.

The market's refusal to pull back is a strong signal for bulls. Consider picking up the discarded chips.

[News]What is NFT? Why is it popular? 3 minutes to learn non-homogeneous tokens lazy bag

What happened in March 2021? An NFT artwork sold for sky-high prices

2021/3/12, at Christie’s auction site, there was an encrypted artwork Everydays: The First 5000 Days. Until the last two hours of the auction, bidders continued to flood in, and finally paid 70 million U.S. dollars (approximately NT$1.9 billion). The astronomical price of yuan) hit the hammer, setting the highest price in the NFT art market.

This also allowed Beeple, the author of this work of art, to be promoted to one of the three most valuable living artists in the world. It also makes the world aware that the original purely digital works will replace physical works and become tools that can be invested and preserved in value.

What does NFT mean? When you read this article, first of all congratulations. This means that you have opened the door to the "coin circle" and are one step closer to investment opportunities. As for how to trade NFT products? Where to trade? You can refer to this article- NFT platform introduction .

Contents:
1 What is NFT?
2 NFT agreement ERC-721 / ERC-1155
3 NFT anti-counterfeiting, confirmation, legal

1 What is NFT?

First of all, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) that we often hear are homogenized tokens, and NFT is a non-homogeneous token. Let's take a look at the characteristics of these two terms?

-Fungible Token:

1. Fungibility: Each cryptocurrency has the same value and the same function. The BTC in my hand is the same as the BTC in yours. It can be exchanged at will, and it can be used for trading without a separate price.

2. Severability: Continue to use BTC as an example. The price of a BTC currently exceeds 1 million Taiwan dollars, but the amount at the time of transaction is often less than 1 Bitcoin. At this time, we can choose to trade only 0.1 BTC, or 0.00001 BTC does not need to be traded in integers and can be split infinitely, which is the divisibility of homogenized tokens.

3. Consistency: Due to the above two characteristics, it has the same recognized value as the legal currency used daily, but it does not need to have different denominations of legal currency banknotes. It supports split transactions and makes homogenized tokens usable for transactions. Good choice.

-Non-Fungible Token (NFT, Non-Fungible Token):

1. Not substitutable: Each NFT is unique and irreplaceable. For example, the master tape of Seiko Takahashi must be unequal to the master tape of the young actress who just debuted, nor can it be replaced by other actresses.

2. Not divisible: If the master digital file of Takahashi Seiko is a NFT token, this token cannot be divided into smaller units for trading, and the unit of each transaction is one, which means that you get this NFT people have a complete mastering of all parts of Takahashi Seiko.
3. Uniqueness: Due to the above two characteristics, the NFT of the "Takahashi Sage Master Band" also has anti-counterfeiting functions and is a digital collectible that can be circulated.

2 NFT protocol ERC-721 / ERC-1155

When I introduced the Little Fox MetaMask cryptocurrency wallet before, I mentioned ERC-20, which is the earlier token specification protocol of the Ethereum blockchain . For example, there are two tokens on the Ethereum platform that are issued with ERC-20. , The two tokens can be exchanged freely, and the tokens here refer to homogenized tokens.

What is Smart Contract?

In one sentence, a smart contract is a "special agreement that can be automatically executed on the blockchain". To put it bluntly, a smart contract is a string of program codes on the blockchain. When special conditions are met, it will be triggered to execute , Neither is smart, nor is it a contract, nor is it legally beneficial.

Since the code on the blockchain will not be tampered with, fully open and transparent, and will not stop operating, it means that no one can change the content and execution of the smart contract. The value of the smart contract is to provide better protection and enforcement for both parties to the contract. , Ethereum Developer Agreement ERC (Ethereum Request for Comments) is a smart contract.

What is ERC-721?

If ERC-20 is used to issue a general homogenized cryptocurrency, ERC-721 is the first standard protocol for non-homogeneous token NFT in Ethereum. Compared with ERC-20, ERC-721 has more diverse application scenarios. , Including games, intellectual property, physical assets, identification, financial documents, ticketing, etc. ERC-721 was created by Dieter Shirley, CTO of CryptoKitties, and is currently used in CryptoKitties, Decentraland and other projects.

The tokens issued through ERC-721 are non-homogeneous tokens, and it is ERC-721 that gives the non-homogeneous token NFT uniqueness. All digital assets: paintings, bonds, houses or cars, in ERC-721 Under the agreement, the security of ownership, the convenience of ownership transfer, and the immutability and transparency of ownership history can be guaranteed.

In addition to ERC-721 and ERC-20, the future development of blockchain will not leave another growing protocol ERC-1155.

What is ERC-1155?

At present, whether it is the homogenized token agreement (ERC-20) or the non-homogeneous token agreement (ERC-721), when creating a token, each requires their own independent smart contracts. For example, game developers may need to create thousands of token types. If the old independent token protocol is used, it will not only limit the interaction between tokens, but also consume a lot of resources on Ethereum.

Through ERC-1155, smart contracts can transmit multiple types of tokens at once. In addition to saving gas fees, multiple types of tokens can also be directly traded based on this protocol, without the need for individual tokens to approve different independent ones. Only after the contract can be traded, the interaction between assimilation tokens and non-homogeneous tokens can be directly carried out.

3 NFT anti-counterfeiting and confirmation

Because NFT has the above-mentioned uniqueness and inseparability characteristics, some areas of NFT are very suitable, such as artwork, games, electronic deposits, and identity authentication. In addition to the cryptographic confirmation of assets (asset identity confirmation) through NFT, the trust problem can be solved. On the other hand, traditional physical assets have passed such authentication, which greatly improves the liquidity of assets and integrates painting, calligraphy, sculpture and other arts. The products are stored on the blockchain in the form of NFT, which not only strengthens the anti-counterfeiting requirements of the collectibles, but also improves the efficiency of physical rights confirmation and transaction circulation.

Our conclusions about the future of NFT:

When it comes to NFTs, most people think of games, artworks, and collectibles. This is still a niche market, especially IP-type NFTs, whose value basically corresponds to the value of IP in the real universe. The valuable IP in the real universe naturally has the advantage of being easy to circulate and being accepted by the next buyer; the IP that originally had no value in the real universe may also end up with no buyer accepting it for 1 yuan. And when the price of IP-type NFTs has been hyped up to a certain extent, this type of NFT will lose its advantage in trading circulation.

NFT has unique attributes, allowing NFT to be more widely used in specific scenarios and services. For example, Yinsure Finance uses NFT tokenization for insurance services. Each insurance policy is an NFT token. In addition to holding it on its own, these tokens can also be used to trade on platforms such as Opensea and Rarible .

Following the Dogecoin boom, two "Dogecoins" Akita Inu and Shiba Inu coins have also increased in price

 

The picture shows the official website of Akita Dogcoin. (Screenshot of official website)

There is an upsurge in the cryptocurrency circle. With the skyrocketing of Dogecoin, cryptocurrencies related to dogs have also skyrocketed in recent days. Also included with the Shiba Inu marked Shiba Inu currency (SHIB), as well as new members of the "Dog currency" of Akita dogs currency (AKITA).

The picture shows the official website of SHIBA TOKEN. Shiba Inu’s development team even claims to be a "Dogecoin killer." (Screenshot of Shiba Inu Coin official website)

On the anniversary of Dogecoin's April 20th, the prices of the two dog currencies also rose. Akita Inu coin increased by 7,417% in one week and 10,628% in 30 days; Shiba Inu coin also increased by 668% in one week and 2,536% in 30 days. And as Dogecoin has soared again recently, the price of "Canine Currency" has also soared.

According to the websites of Shiba Inu Coin and Akita Inu Coin, both currencies are decentralized experimental tokens sent from the community. 50% of the total supply will be locked in Uniswap transactions, and the remaining 50% will be destroyed. The development team will not hold any tokens in their hands. The purpose is to ensure that the price of the currency is stable and there will be no possibility of official manipulation of the price.

The picture shows the price trend of Akita Dogcoin. Since its launch, the Akita Dogecoin has surged in April and May following the increase of Dogecoin. (Screenshot of CoinMarketCap)

Akita Inu Gohei "Akita Inu Amiji"

Akita Dogcoin was launched on Uniswap in January and has now entered 7 exchanges including Huobi and MXC Matcha. The Akita Dogcoin development team has been cooperating with Polarfox Ecosystem and Avalaunch to create a community called "Akita Dog Network", which will continue to develop through the use of small sponsorships for Akita Dogcoin.

It is worth mentioning that the Akita dog also introduced currency Home currency, as well as self-proclaimed "dog coins CEO" of Musk (Elon Musk). The development team claims that Akita Dogecoin was inspired by Dogecoin and the team hopes that Akita Dogecoin will also rely on the power of the community to drive its own development.

Shiba Inu coin calls itself ``Dogecoin killer''

As for Shiba Inu coins, they even call themselves "Dogecoin killers." Shiba Coin intends to launch its own decentralized trading platform ShibaSwap and establish its own ecosystem, and the future blueprint published on its website intends to get involved in the NFT platform.

According to the development team, Shiba Inu Coin will provide LEAH as a reward for liquidity mining, and the blueprint for another BONE currency will be announced when ShibaSwap goes online.

Although both Shiba Inu and Akita are still in the early stages of development, the recent media exposure of the use of Dogecoin has greatly increased. The two currencies have also attracted the attention of investors and participated in the community to promote development.

[News] Female stock god Wood is no longer attractive? Ark investors run away

After some of the stock selling pressures that Ark Investment Management Company heavily no pledged , the outflow of funds from three index equity funds ( ETFs ) of Cathie Wood, the "women stock god" in charge of the company , set a record for the most in the company's history. .

According to Bloomberg's data, the company's flagship fund product Ark Innovation ETF (transaction code: ARKK) outflowed US$465 million on the 23rd. Investors withdrew US$202 million from the Ark Biogenetic Innovation ETF (ARKG), and Ark Next Generation Network ETF (ARKW) also flowed US$119 million.

As Ark’s assets under management reached 60 billion U.S. dollars as of last week, these outflows are only a small part of it, but this is the largest capital flight that this company founded in 2014 has encountered in history,] And this time Outflows are more than three times higher than the previously written record.

The main reason why Wood's ETFs have been hit is that US technology stocks are under heavy selling pressure, which has caused the company's most-owned Tesla to fall. Wood told Bloomberg TV on the 23rd that she would like to see this correction and that she bought more Tesla shares on dips.

According to a Reuters report, Ark said on the 24th that when Tesla's stock price plummeted, the company had bought more than $171 million worth of Tesla shares; Tesla's closing price on the 23rd was the first time this year to fall below $700.

According to the official website of Ark Investment Management, the company bought Tesla in three batches this time, with the purchase value of US$124 million, US$39 million, and US$8 million. In addition, Ark also sold TSMC (2330) shares worth US$126 million on the same day .

Ark's innovative ETF with assets of US$26.6 billion achieved triple-digit performance last year and was one of the best performing ETFs last year. However, the fund is implicated by Tesla, and its performance this week has fallen sharply. After all, Tesla accounts for 10% of the fund's holdings, and some of the company's stocks have also fallen sharply.

After a large inflow of funds last year, more and more people have begun to short this fund. According to data from IHS Market, Ark's short order balance currently accounts for more than 3% of the number of tradable stocks, setting a record high.