Recently, the market has jumped up and down, the operation is relatively difficult, mainly due to the great divergence between longs and shorts. On the one hand, the money supply continues to tighten, and on the other hand, the data on the chain continues to support the bull market, making the battle between longs and shorts very difficult. It is fierce, and everyone can clearly feel the fluctuations in the near future, but there is no real direction. This wide-ranging trend is expected to continue. The United States will announce the number of unemployment benefits at 20:30 tonight, and the monetary policy minutes will be announced at 2:00 in the morning. At present, the expectation of shrinking the balance sheet is still very obvious. This has been reflected in the pre-market (down) trend of US stocks. Fed Brad said early in the morning that inflation may be higher in 2022 and will be forced to enter the anti-inflation mode. It would be a reasonable time to reduce debt purchases in the first quarter of this year and raise interest rates in the fourth quarter. It can be seen that the tightening expectations are coming forward, and it is expected that with the data tonight, there will be major fluctuations in the data, and the long-short competition will further escalate. See the specific analysis below, and wait and see.
Citibank’s chief foreign exchange strategist said that global central banks appear to be reducing monetary stimulus. Judging from the meeting minutes released yesterday, the Fed is also hinting at expectations for reduction this year. The madman also found a piece of data, in the past 4 years, the relationship between Bitcoin and global currency growth, to share with you:
We can clearly see that the currency growth rate and Bitcoin price are positively correlated, and we are still in the cycle of currency issuance. Whether this tightening callback can continue will determine the future trend of Bitcoin. Madmen believe that the big economic cycle has entered stagflation, so it is difficult to really reduce the release of water. After a short-term pain, continuing to rise is the most consistent result of the cycle and trend.
American legendary fund manager Bill Miller stated that he bought approximately $30 million in Coinbase stock in the second quarter of 2021, and said that he is optimistic about Bitcoin in the long term. The cognition of top traders must be much better than ours. People are still increasing their positions at a high level. What's so terrible about us.
Spinesmith Holdings, a German biotechnology company, began to hold Bitcoin for a long time and included it on its balance sheet. More and more institutions around the world began to hold Bitcoin. All positions below 60,000 will become the bottom range in the future. , Because the total amount of Bitcoin is limited, and the demand is growing rapidly.
The Minister of Finance of El Salvador stated that the use of Bitcoin is completely optional. Merchants can choose to accept or not accept Bitcoin. The U.S. dollar is still the main currency of El Salvador, and the Central Bank of El Salvador has issued a draft of Bitcoin-related banking supervision. I can feel that it is difficult for the people to accept Bitcoin as a legal currency. Therefore, the success of the Bitcoin experiment in El Salvador is more determined by whether Bitcoin can continue to rise.
MicroStrategy CEO stated that Bitcoin will become a $100 trillion asset class. Regardless of whether his judgment is ultimately correct, at least for now, he is one of knowing and doing, buying and holding bitcoins like crazy.
According to the data on the chain, holders above 100 BTC have reduced their holdings, while those below 1 BTC have increased their holdings. This is a mid-term performance of the bull market. At the same time, the inflow of Bitcoin in centralized exchanges has increased in the past two weeks, the price of the currency has fallen, the inflow has increased, and differences have occurred, which is in a good state.
The discount rate of GBTC fell to -16.56%, a record low in the past three months. It can be seen that many institutions have sold GBTC. When ARK reduced its holdings, madmen judged that GBTC would continue to fall, and ARK people did the same. Bands make money, not to give benefits. The recent market downturn is related to these band-making institutions.
As a result, the balance of Ethereum hit a new low, dropping to 13% of the total supply. At the same time, the amount of ETH2.0 locked up was close to 7 million. The relationship between supply and demand continued to improve, laying the foundation for future growth.
VanEck submitted an Ethereum ETF application to the SEC. Everything about Ethereum will not lose to the big pie, and the future can be expected.
Greed 70, has been unable to drop, is not conducive to rising.
Market analysis
Bitcoin：
In the early hours of the morning, Bitcoin pulled back the gains from last night. It is not ideal. Short-term 42,000 is a strong support. I am not sure whether there will be a chance to insert the needle before and after the Fed minutes is issued tonight. A sharp drop below 43000 is still a good short-term opportunity to increase positions. In addition, if the lower shadow line can be closed again this evening, it will be a relatively ideal form. Bitcoin's trend is full of uncertainty in these two days, and a big rise or fall is likely to be triggered. 48000 is still the key position for the long collection. Once it breaks through, the whole situation will change. Similarly, if 42000 is effectively broken down, the market will form a staged top. The madman overall believes that the bulls still have a slight advantage, and the final defeat of the bears is a high probability event.
ETH：
Ethereum has a certain degree of support at 2900, and funds are waiting to see the face of the big pie. There is no independent market, and linkage is the mainstay.
DOT：
Concussion is a relatively strong trend and can continue to be held.
XRP：
Short-term weak linkage.
LINK：
The bulls have collapsed, and it is difficult to reverse upward in the short term.
THERE IS:
We are still speculating about the expectation that the smart contract will be launched in September. When the time comes, we can see whether its ecology can be benchmarked with Ethereum. Buying in this position is speculation. The specific results can be seen after the landing. Holders can also consider taking half of the profit at a high position.
DOGE:
In the near term, linkage is the main focus, and the pressure below 0.4 is still great.
FIL ：
The recent volatility is dominated, the bulls do not have the ability to continue the independent rise in the market, and the selling pressure is quite large.
AXS：
The form has been carried back and forth, and there will be weakness behind the funds, and it is recommended not to participate.
SUSHI:
Step back on the support level, and whether you can get up later depends on tomorrow's performance.
AAVE:
There will be many public chains using it in the future. It is a good asset. The recent decline has been relatively large, so it can be avoided first.
SUN:
Continue the 5-day line tactics.
Some second-tier public chains have followed ADA and SOL out of the trend of supplementary gains, which are expected to be difficult to sustain, and it is recommended not to chase higher. The market is in a difficult period of choice, and wide fluctuations are the main tone. The end of this month will probably determine the trend of the next six months to one year. For a very important period of time, I hope that business as usual will bring us more wealth.
